Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Tuesday Links

  • The above is Eurostat's European construction index.  The great recession never ended as far as this is concerned - it's still falling rapidly six years after its peak.
  • Syria may break into pieces.
  • Losing the High Plains Aquifer.
  • Google getting into the massive cloud computing business.
  • Bruce Schneier on the future of privacy: none.

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Thursday Links

  • Above is European and US GDP from Eurostat, including the latest data for Europe (Q1).  The European economy continues to shrink.  Some enterprising university over there needs to make Paul Krugman an offer he can't refuse so that he can nag their elites endlessly to reinflate the economy.
  • The weather is really losing it in the US midwest.
  • A bibliography of papers on artificial intelligence risk.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Tuesday Links

  • The above is the Yen/$ exchange rate since 1970.  The uptick on the far right is the initial effects of Abenomics (essentially making somewhat credible threats to increase inflation by increasing the money supply).  Some more interesting charts here from Edward Hugh, along with a rather sceptical take.  I'm inclined to think it's a bit too soon to draw any firm conclusions.
  • Someone may be studying how to perform destructive cyber-attacks on energy infrastructure.
  • The children of the upper class and upper middle class are increasingly stressed out by the process of being prepared for today's hyper-competitive globalized society.
  • Related: student debt and the crushing of the American dream.
  • There are severe financial consequences to firmly predicting global doom and being wrong.
  • Kevin Drum has a very good piece about the economic consequences of approach to singularity. His views and mine are rather similar in the short to medium term (and he even uses one of my graphs).  In the long term, I'm rather less optimistic about the "robotic paradise of leisure and contemplation" than he is.  That assumes that a highly intelligent economic system with no need at all for humans will continue to prioritize their welfare for many generations.  Building the system to guarantee that strikes me as very hard to do.
  • This Bertrand Russell essay on the value of idleness was written in 1932, but still seems trenchant today (I'm personally struggling with how to think about these issues in the context of the approaching singularity).  H/T Ran Prieur.

Monday, May 13, 2013

April Oil Supply Little Changed


The April numbers are out from the IEA and OPEC, and the overall pattern of flat supply since 2012 is continuing (graph above, not zero-scaled).

I refer you to last month's update for a much more detailed explanation of the context.  April seems to have changed the picture so little that it doesn't make sense to repeat everything in there.

Sunday, May 12, 2013

Weekend Links

Friday, May 10, 2013

Poem for Friday

I don't feel like blogging this morning.  Accordingly, this post is being outsourced to poet and farmer Wendell Berry:

Even while I dreamed I prayed that what I saw was only fear
and no foretelling,
for I saw the last known landscape destroyed for the sake
of the objective, the soil bludgeoned, the rock blasted.
Those who had wanted to go home would never get there now.

I visited the offices where for the sake of the objective
the planners planned
at blank desks set in rows. I visited the loud factories
where the machines were made that would drive ever forward
toward the objective. I saw the forest reduced to stumps and gullies; I saw
the poisoned river, the mountain cast into the valley;
I came to the city that nobody recognized because it looked
like every other city.
I saw the passages worn by the unnumbered
footfalls of those whose eyes were fixed upon the objective.

Their passing had obliterated the graves and the monuments
of those who had died in pursuit of the objective
and who had long ago forever been forgotten, according
to the inevitable rule that those who have forgotten forget
that they have forgotten. Men, women, and children now
pursued the objective
as if nobody ever had pursued it before.

The races and the sexes now intermingled perfectly in
pursuit of the objective.
the once-enslaved, the once-oppressed were now free
to sell themselves to the highest bidder
and to enter the best paying prisons
in pursuit of the objective, which was the destruction
of all enemies,
which was the destruction of all obstacles, which was the destruction
of all objects,
which was to clear the way to victory, which was to clear the way
to promotion, to salvation, to progress,
to the completed sale, to the signature
on the contract, which was to clear the way
to self-realization, to self-creation, from which nobody who
ever wanted to go home
would ever get there now, for every remembered place
had been displaced; the signposts had been bent to the
ground and covered over.

Every place had been displaced, every love
unloved, every vow unsworn, every word unmeant
to make way for the passage of the crowd
of the individuated, the autonomous, the self-actuated, the homeless
with their many eyes opened toward the objective
which they did not yet perceive in the far distance,
having never known where they were going,
having never known where they came from.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Thursday Links

  • Above - continued decline of retail trade in Europe.
  • Vaunted venture-capital fund Kleiner Perkins has lost money on its green-tech investments.   I think probably this bet will be a winner eventually, but, as a sage investor friend once told me "Being right too early is just as bad as being wrong".  Making this kind of portfolio pay is going to take stronger government action to even up the playing field between renewables and fossil fuels (which don't currently pay their externalities of wrecking the global climate).
  • One for the Annals of Unnecessary Innovations.
  • How the town of Dryden, NY banned fracking and has so far made the ban stick in court.  I live in Dryden, and Marie McRae, mentioned in the story, lives just up the road from me.  I think the story underplays a bit the influence of Ithaca/Cornell in Dryden; the western part is very heavily influenced by commuters and I think it makes the town quite a bit more affluent and progressive than a typical rural upstate town.
  • Another computer scientist concerned about what automation is doing to the economy and the middle class.
  • It'a a good time of year to do an energy audit of your house, if you didn't already do so.  
  • The paradigm seems to be shifting away from austerity.  If more expansionary thinking were to take hold, particularly in Europe, it considerably raises the odds of an oil price shock in the next few years.
  • Return on equity for oil and gas producers in the US (2011/2012).  Pure oil producers did ok (not fantastic) with about 12% ROE, but pure natural gas producers were losing money hand-over-fist.  So US natural gas prices were unsustainably low, but US oil prices (ie mainly WTI probably) were roughly where they needed to be.

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

OECD Oil Consumption

Tuesday Links

Monday, May 6, 2013

Sunday, May 5, 2013

April PDSI Map for California and Nevada


From the West Wide Drought Tracker.  Lots of -5 and -6.  Looks like a very bad fire season indeed.

For newer readers who don't understand the PDSI scale, try this post.

Weekend Links

  • The above shows estimates of the maximum volume of ice in the Arctic each winter (red), and the amount of it melting each summer (blue).  When the two curves meet, then the Arctic will be ice free in September.  Hard to see how it's more than a decade off.  Could even be just a couple of years off if the noise goes the wrong way.  At any rate, it's a done deal I think.  We are irrevocably committed to having melted the North Pole, and now we get to find out the consequences.
  • Australia slowing down due to (relative) slowdown in big Asian economies.
  • New nationalist party making gains in the UK.
  • Putative new motto for Silicon Valley: First Security, then innovate.  Good luck with that.
  • Interesting essay on why we tell children so many stories about animals.
  • Early wildfires bode ill for California.  Below is a NOAA map for the soil moisture anomaly across the US as of yesterday.  A lot of California has 4-7" less water in the soil profile than a normal year (1971-2000 is the base period).  That's a lot.  Given that the rainy season there is over by now, there's no way to make it up.  So likely this is going to be a rough fire year.  And a lot of the western US looks only slightly better off.

Thursday, May 2, 2013

Thursday Links

  • We're about to cross 400ppm of carbon in the famous Mauna Loa measurement series.  399.5 ppm today.  If you look at the monthly graph, there have been some hourly averages that have tipped over the line.
  • Storage options for renewable power (nice summary by Robert Rapier).
  • Bakken recoverable oil estimates are growing again.  At a 5% depletion rate, 7.4 gb gives about 1mb/d of production.
  • Completely off-topic, but it really sounds like scientists are starting to get somewhere with cancer.  Pretty exciting stuff.
  • Speaking of amazing but off-topic medical progress: possible new understanding of aging being regulated by the hypothalamus.  I've had a strong suspicion that aging must be centrally regulated just from reflecting that dogs and cats get a lot of the same chronic diseases as humans, just on a much accelerated timeline, suggesting they are somehow part of the normal aging process.
  • Hopefully, scientists will get on this stuff promptly before I get too much older (although, I have to admit very uncharitably that I'm hoping not before Ray Kurzweil gets too old).